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blog:curry_gnistrande_klar_i_senastsfoerhoer [2019/04/07 13:48] (current)
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 +====== Curry gnistrande klar i senatsförhör ======
 +
 +Vid senatsförhöret 14-01-16 var Judith Curry väldigt tydligt med att IPCC övertygelse om klimatets utveckling minskat. Andrew Dessler, ​ Professor of Atmospheric Sciences Texas A&M University försökte säga att kunskapsläget var helt klart, men fick efter Currys anförande hålla med Curry. "​Kunskaperna är bristfälliga om vad det är som påverkar klimatet"​. ​
 +
 +Några av senatorerna hade också synnerligen dåliga kunskaper, t.ex. ordförandens sen Boxer och sen Whitehouse.
 +
 +===== Huvudpunkterna i Currys presentation =====
 +
 +
 +  * For the past 16 years, there has been no significant increase in surface temperature. There is a growing discrepancy between observations and climate model projections. Observations since 2011 have fallen below the 90% envelope of climate model projections
 + * The IPCC does not have a convincing or confident explanation for this hiatus in warming.
 + * There is growing evidence of decreased climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxideconcentrations
 + * Based on expert judgment in light of this evidence, the IPCC 5th assessment report lowered its surface temperature projection relative to the model projections for the period 2016-2036.
 +
 +===== Currys summary =====
 +
 +Multiple lines of evidence presented in the IPCC AR5 WG1 report suggest that the case for anthropogenic warming is weaker than the previous assessment AR4 in 2007. Anthropogenic global warming is a proposed theory whose basic mechanism is well understood, but whos e magnitude is highly uncertain. The growing evidence that climate models are too sensitive to CO2 has implications for the attribution of late 20 thcentury warming and projections of 21st century climate. ​
 +
 +If the recent warming hiatus is caused by natural variability,​ then this raises the question as to what extent the warming between 1975 and 2000 can also be explained by natural climate variability. The stadium wave hypothesis predicts that the warming hiatus could extend to the 2030’s. Based upon climate model projections,​ the probability of the hiatus extending beyond 20 years is vanishing small.
 +
 +If the hiatus does extend beyond 20 years, then a very substantial reconsideration will be needed of the 20th century attribution and the 21 st century projections of climate change. ​
 +
 +===== Klimatplanen stoppas i Kongressen =====
 +
 +Senatsförhöret gällde Obamas Climate Action Plan. Oenigheten, för att inte säga aggressiviteten,​ mellan D och R, var stor. Det lär finnas demokrater som också säger nej till Obamas plan. Det är uppenbart planen inte kommer att få stöd i Kongressen. Det framgick också att republikanska senatorer ligger bakom eller medverkar i flera stämningar av den ansvariga myndigeten EPA.
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blog/curry_gnistrande_klar_i_senastsfoerhoer.txt · Last modified: 2019/04/07 13:48 (external edit)