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blog:of_course_the_world_is_better_now_than_it_was_in_1900

Of Course the World Is Better Now Than It Was in 1900

Vi har det väldigt mycket bättre idag än år 1900. Det konstaterar Bjørn Lomborg i Slate.

It will probably come as a big surprise that climate change from 1900 to 2025 has mostly been a net benefit, increasing welfare by about 1.5 percent of GDP per year. This is because global warming has mixed effects; for moderate warming, the benefits prevail.

On one hand, because CO2 works as a fertilizer, higher levels have been a boon for agriculture, which comprises the biggest positive impact, at 0.8 percent of GDP. Likewise, moderate warming prevents more cold deaths than the number of extra heat deaths that it causes. It also reduces demand for heating more than it increases the costs of cooling, implying a gain of about 0.4 percent of GDP. On the other hand, warming increases water stress, costing about 0.2 percent of GDP, and negatively affects ecosystems like wetlands, at a cost of about 0.1 percent.

Artikeln baseras på boken “How Much Have Global Problems Cost the World? A Scorecard from 1900 - 2050” som ges ut av Copenhagen Consensus Center. Denna think tank, som ledas av Bjørn Lomborg, har flyttat till Prag, sedan den danska regeringen slutat att finansiera verksamheten.

Matt Ridley har läst Lomborgs bok och återger i Spectator vad professor Richard Tol of Sussex University skriver i ett av bokens kapitel. Tol sammanfattar att klimatförändringarna hittills har varit till fördel för människor och jorden och att det gäller fram till 2080.

The chief benefits of global warming include: fewer winter deaths; lower energy costs; better agricultural yields; probably fewer droughts; maybe richer biodiversity. It is a little-known fact that winter deaths exceed summer deaths — not just in countries like Britain but also those with very warm summers, including Greece. Both Britain and Greece see mortality rates rise by 18 per cent each winter. Especially cold winters cause a rise in heart failures far greater than the rise in deaths during heatwaves.

En annan intressant uppgift i Ridleys artikel handlar om Sahel

Dr Randall Donohue and colleagues of the CSIRO Land and Water department in Australia also analysed satellite data and found greening to be clearly attributable in part to the carbon dioxide fertilisation effect. Greening is especially pronounced in dry areas like the Sahel region of Africa, where satellites show a big increase in green vegetation since the 1970s.

Det är värt att följa upp.

blog/of_course_the_world_is_better_now_than_it_was_in_1900.txt · Last modified: 2019/04/07 13:48 (external edit)